luni, 1 august 2011

"Au făcut un dezastru, şi numesc asta reforme de succes!"



Este o parafrază după Tacit"Au făcut un deşert, şi numesc asta pace!", şi se potriveşte cum nu se poate mai bine politicilor de tip austeritate, care nu au pus nimic lângă austeritate. Ca cum ar fi în România(grămăticii să se abţină!). Dar îmi vine greu să cred că ar înţelege asta băsescu şi boc.

Citesc acum în FT câteva observaţii de bun-simţ despre eşecul politicii de austeritate a guvernului britanic şi a ministrului de finanţe, la care merită să mediteze şi guvernanţii noştri, dacă e vreunul capabil să înţeleagă ce şi cum: " The reason the current strategy will fail was succinctly stated by John Maynard Keynes. Growth depends on aggregate demand. If you reduce aggregate demand, you reduce growth. This is what is happening.

When he assumed office in May 2010, the Chancellor claimed Britain’s government faced a loss of investor confidence that demanded fiscal retrenchment The initial reaction to his emergency Budget of June 2010 was favourable: on the markets gilt yields fell and Mr Osborne basked in the approval of the International Monetary Fund. Yet these two crucial pillars of support for the coalition’s policy look shaky. First, the international technocrats now seem much less certain that the Chancellor is leading us out of recession. In its latest and most sophisticated study of fiscal austerity, the IMF concluded that it did have “contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP”. This should hardly come as a surprise: IMF studies from 2009 and 2010 found the same. Potentially much more destructive, however, investors are also beginning to change their tune."

Cum ar veni, pieţili zâseră: "Pardon de eroare, dar ne sucirăm! E naşpa cu austeritatea. Ne taie la lingurică!" Iar FMI dă din cap, a înţelegere, şi se pregăteşte să critice austeritatea! Şi nu e totul: "In the early days of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis the markets did indeed identify fiscal profligacy as the problem. Investors demanded an austerity plan in Greece, and were delivered one in May 2010. The results have disappointed, however – with the continued shrinkage of the Greek economy leading to missed fiscal targets, despite aggressive cuts. Last month, the original bail-out programme had to be extended, as investors continued to flee Greek bonds.

When, in July, the crisis spread to Italy, many analysts were puzzled. Why should the only eurozone country scheduled to run a primary fiscal surplus in 2011 be under attack? The message from the bond markets is clear: investors have begun to realise that austerity alone is proving a false trail. The royal road to creditworthiness runs not via cuts alone, but via growth."

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