Merkel, după Hitler

Dacă suntem oneşti, trebuie să recunoaştem că ceea ce a început Hitler, în septembrie 1939, prin atacarea Poloniei, este pe cale să desăvârşească Merkel, în anul de graţie 2012. Între timp europenii au tras din greu pentru a reface puterea arogantă a germanilor, crezând că lumea a învăţat ceva din cele două măceluri globale din secolul XX. N-a învăţat! Şi nici n-o să înveţe! 

UE a fost mecanismul prin intermediul căruia germanii au acaparat puterea pe continent şi dictează ţărilor europene condiţiile lor. Iată ce scrie azi FT: "Will Greece have to leave the euro? Ultimately, it will be Germany’s call. Will politicians support further bailouts for southern Europe? The vital debates will take place in the Bundestag in Berlin – not in the European parliament. Who does the International Monetary Fund call about the euro crisis? The most important conversations take place with the German government and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt – not the European Commission.

This shift in power from Brussels to Berlin has been accelerated by the euro crisis. Naturally, the German chancellor Angela Merkel still has to go to summits in Brussels and strike deals. She was there only last week. But the euro crisis means that Ms Merkel is now incomparably the most important leader at the table. "

Mai mult, nici măcar despre contraponderea Franţei nu mai există. Motorul franco-german este, practic, de domeniul trecutului, iar alte naţiuni nu sunt capabile să se opună dictatului Berlinului. "For different reasons, the leaders of all the other big EU nations arrive in Brussels in a weak position. Spain and Italy are struggling with their debt crises – and so have become supplicants. The British have opted out of the single currency and the new structures that the eurozone is putting together – so they are marginalised. The Poles are also not in the euro, and have a relatively small economy.

That leaves France. By tradition, a Franco-German partnership is at the heart of any EU deal. For many years, summits were preceded by a separate Franco-German meeting and a joint letter from the two nations. When Nicolas Sarkozy was still in the Elysée, his relationship with Chancellor Merkel was so close that “Merkozy” became a journalistic shorthand for Europe’s dominant duo.

Even then, many were sceptical. One top EU official scoffed that – “France needs Germany to disguise how weak it is. Germany needs France to disguise how strong it is.” Now even the disguises have dropped away. There was no Franco-German letter before the most recent EU summit. Instead, President François Hollande gave an interview to the European press to try to pressurise Ms Merkel to give ground on the mutualisation of European debt and the creation of a banking union. But at the summit it became clear that the Germans will not be hurried. Some argue that the Franco-German partnership has always gone through rough patches – and that the two nations will inevitably get together again. This time, however, it could be different. The power gap between France and Germany has become too obvious; and the issues that divide them are too fundamental.

France’s various proposals for eurozone bonds, banking unions, EU-wide infrastructure spending and common social programmes are all greeted with deep suspicion in Berlin. The Germans suspect that the bottom line uniting these ideas is a desire to get German taxpayers to subsidise France. But Germany’s counterproposal – that the national budgets of EU nations be subject to control by a European commissioner – is dismissed as an unacceptable infringement of national sovereignty in Paris.

By tradition, a Franco-German compromise would be hammered out. But the issues involved are so basic that a deal may not be easily found. In that case, the relative economic strength of Germany could prove decisive – particularly if, as many in Berlin suspect, France is heading for a profound economic crisis."

Nu viaţa bună îi împiedică pe germani să înţeleagă prin ce trec alţii. Amnezia, voită, da! Au şters trecutul, şi revin la vechea lor aroganţă, la dorinţa de dominaţie. O conjunctură face ca acum să se afle într-o situaţie economică relativ mai bună. Dar asta nu va dura la nesfârşit. Iar modelul lor economic este imposibil de transpus la nivel continental. Când vor simţi asta pe pielea lor, nemţii vor avea un şoc. Şoc dublat de ura celor pe care i-au umilit, între timp.

Câtă vreme restul europenilor îşi vor consuma frustrările legate de nemţi şi de dominaţia lor în pace, e încă bine. Dar dacă ipoteza asta nu e valabilă? Vom trăi şi vom vedea...